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- four-tenths of a cent per kilowatt-hour. It would then, of course, remain to distribute it in further detail. Those who are familiar with the cost of power will see that there is here a very attractive possibility for power users and at the same time at rates which should provide a safe economic basis for the return of the investment, and not only the return of the investment but of the interest charges at the same time. In this connection and in answer to a question asked of Mr. Criswell I would state, on behalf of the chief electrical engineer of the city of Los Angeles, that the losses in transmission over a distance of 250 to 300 miles and at a voltage of 220,000 volts will average not far from 10 per cent and such loss has been assumed in the illustrative case assumed. With somewhat higher voltages which may be looked for in the future it is to be anticipated that this loss may, perhaps, be somewhat reduced. The only further point I have had in mind--and which I do believe is of importance--is that with regard to the significance of this power at Boulder Canyon Dam in reference to our soil reserves. Last week while here I had a conference with Director Smith of the Geological Survey and was provided by him, as set forth in authorized public information, with the latest estimates which have been made by a special commission entrusted with the duty of determining, as far as was humanly possible, the amount of our oil reserves. The amount of such reserves is represented by a figure of about 9,000,000,000 barrels, according to the best estimate which can humanly be made at the present time. Mr. SINNOTT. Does that include the shale oils? Professor DURAND. No; I believe it does not include the shale oils; it is basically the oils which are recoverable by methods at present approved and in use. Mr. SMITH of Idaho. Is that in the entire United States or just in California? Professor DURAND. That is in the entire United States. The amount of the reserves correspondingly on the Pacific coast, or in the State of California, is 2,000,000,000 barrels. Mr. RAKER. How does your estimate as to what this power could be produced for at the Boulder Creek Dam compare with the cost of power per kilowatt hour now? Professor DURAND. It is distinctly cheaper. Mr. RAKER. About how much? Professor DURAND. The present cost, of course, is extremely variable, depending on circumstances. Mr. RAKER. Well, on the average? Professor DURAND. I should say perhaps 60 per cent of the average cost under other conditions. Mr. RAKER. This would be 60 per cent cheaper?Professor DURAND. No; 40 per cent cheaper. Mr. RAKER. Forty per cent cheaper from the Boulder Canyon Dam than it is now produced for? Professor DURAND. Yes, sir. However, understand that that is a very general statement. Mr. RAKER. I understand. Mr. SINNOTT. DO the figures you have give the length of time it would take us to exhaust the 9,000,000,000 barrels? Professor DURAND. I was just coming to that. Our present rate of production is a little under 500,000,000 barrels per year and the consumption a little over 500,000,000 barrels, which means that we have to go abroad for the balance. If these various conditions should continue about as they are we should exhaust these resources in about 20 years. Director Smith points out, however, that, taken by itself, this statement might be misleading, because conditions are not going to remain as they are. Our production is apparently going up a little more; it is progressing toward a peak and then it will gradually and necessarily decline. On the other hand, the future alone can determine as to where our consumption may go in the meantime. This will involve questions of world supply, of our representation in foreign fields, of the cost of imported oil and other economic and industrial factors. But as Director Smith states, we shall go on producing for some years to an increasing extent and then the production will gradually decline, so that the total oil reserves in the United States will last beyond the 20-year period. That is to say, there will be some oil of the reserves above referred to still available 20 years hence and some 30 years hence. Mr. SWING. But importations will have to greatly increase? Professor DURAND. Absolutely, and I was about to emphasize that very point. Importations will have to increase in order to balance the increased consumption. Now, if we equate the power at Boulder Canyon into fuel oil we find that the 600,000 horsepower a year equated into terms of oil represents something like 23,000,000 barrels.
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